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The latest computer models have Hurricane Irene approaching south Jersey as a hurricane, with at least one forecasting her retaining category 2 strength as she nears L.I.
Sad I'm going to miss it. Anyone prepping yet?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...1109_5day.html
I guess Irene is falling off the front page now!
LOl even took Ghadaffi off the front page!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Derf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...14W5_NL_sm.gif
The five day forecasts are only accurate to about 250 miles, but as of now they seem to be agreeing on a direct hit on NYC and/or LI Sunday.
Put away all the outdoor items this morning (chairs, umbrellas, loose garden items, etc). Next couple of days I'm really busy, so I may be over acting, but, at least I'll be ready if it does hit. Hopefully it goes out to sea and the work was for naught.Quote:
Originally Posted by GothamSpotter
Looks like the forecast shifted east last night. Hopefully it keeps doing that over the next few days.
I have my swimsuit and rubber duckie all out and ready to go!
Figure I'll get gas and stuff for the chain saw and like john, get all the loose items (deck furnature, bbq, etc) out of the yard. Then gas up the truck so I can head out to the coast on Sunday afternoon to get some coastal photographs of the rough surf coming in.
That, water, flashlights, batteries, some canned food. But pending hurricane or not, everyone should have these items to begin with just in case.
PHIL! Where is the beer?
I think that falls under canned food...:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Derf
The beer is in the left hand ALWAYS, while you're purchasing the other items.
Thanks for clarifying as I was worried
Nice. And remember to have all your cells/Blackberries/Iphones etc FULLY CHARGED!! And your scanner is pretty important to have fully ready to go also.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
I also have a nice portable DVD player that will be ready to entertain me.
Full propane tank and ice for the cooler (for not only beer :wink:).
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
I'm very concerned by the path of this storm. Latest forecast has this if it hits us hitting us as a Cat 2. This is one on thing in life that truly scares me. I really hope it passes well east of us. In any event if it doesn't I hope everyone in its path stays safe.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater
The path of this storm has me concerned as well T-Bird. When I checked the latest forecast track (I know its an estimate right now), it had the center of the storm passing right over the city where the office I work at is which is only 15 miles from my house. Not really any weather scares me, but this definitely concerns me. I have been through a couple hurricanes, but I was a kid at the time and what seemed fun and exciting then definitely does seem worrisome now. Hopefully all goes well, and the storm passes off to the east and little to no damage results.Quote:
Originally Posted by T-Bird76
I am very worried about it, my current house is bay front in Long Beach and I am closing on a new one as of the second week in September. My new house is beach front in the west end where the distance between the ocean and the bay is around 1,000 feet at the max. If this storm is greater than a Cat 1 Long Beach will literaly be wiped off of the map. I'm pretty scared. I have not decided if we are going to fly to Sarasota or drive to Vermont at this point but those are the two places I am anticipating my evacuation too at this point pending forcast.
I may be overly optimistic but this looks like Hurricane Earl Part II.
Now it's time for some anxiety inducing BS Weather channel coverage!!!!!
http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/...us_600x338.jpg
Honestly it looks like it's going to be another non-event. New NHC products show the storm clipping the east end (similar to Earl) and maybe giving western LI and NYC a mild nor easter like storm.
But who knows, I may be regretting this post later on.
EDIT: One thing I am worried about is the possible storm surge, especially for the south shore.
8pm track had it a little more west again. I'm sure everyone has their own tracking sites - the one I use - which has an abundance of information is www.spaghettimodels.com - he gains information from a lot of sites and puts it on one page.
Preparedness is the only thing - we were prepared for Irene from the first day she was born - but - she is missing us now - will be watching carefully for you guys up north though...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...14W5_NL_sm.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting_falcon_51
same thing that worries me, my houses are only 8ft above sea level and the basement is prone to flooding in heavy rains. ruh roh...
Yeah, it hurts just about everyone because coastal areas are supposed to have record high tides and that is about the time they could get hit with a storm surge. Also the ground has been saturated and that could cause more flooding and/or downed trees.Quote:
Originally Posted by cancidas
Looks like the latest information has it hitting the coast of North Carolina which will diminish the storm quite a bit - bring it over you guys as a category 1 or even a tropical storm - a lot better than a direct hit as a category 2....
That certainly is good news Mark. At least the winds won't be as bad, but some of you guys still have the storm surge to worry about. Hopefully it isn't too bad on Long Island.
The 11am track has moved west a little more - the more west - the less you guys will get!!! It's looking a little better still....
Storm surge could actually be much worse if it moves west. Water would be pushed into the corner formed by LI meeting the mainland and the water has nowhere to go.Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkLawrence
Wow - didn't realize that Matt - not knowing NY that well - didn't think of that - was only thinking of the wind force.Quote:
Originally Posted by GothamSpotter
For people in Suffolk.
For those of you who are concerned about the losing power and may not have a weather radio handy I suggest signing up for Code RED. This is like the EAS for your phone so if there is an active emergency and automated service will call you and give you the details. This service is great and it's free!
Note: I was able to sign up last night but right now their servers are on overload, I would keep trying.
Mark the further west this goes unless it goes all the way inland makes it much much worse for us. If this storm's eye passes over Queens which is the latest track, Long Island will be devastated by 100+mph wind. There will be a huge storm surge to the north shore areas of the city and Long Island. The best case would be for this storm to move east with its eye crossing over the twin forks or off shore. However that does not seem to be the case right now and as things stand we are facing the worst case scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkLawrence
At this point I am very concerned and afraid of what's coming our way. The thought of losing what you worked for doesn't sit well with me. Insurance or not some items can never be replaced.
I remember Gloria in '85. We lost some trees and had some minor basement flooding. As long as it isn't worse than that, things shouldn't be too terribly bad. Although, as I'm reading, apparently it came ashore on the Island at low tide and with not an incredible amount of rain. The opposite of what is now being predicted with the effect of the moon adding into it as well.
If it turns into something crazy for real I'll be coming up there to get my Mom out of Lawrence if she insists on "riding it out"
When dealing with storms we (weather guys) divide them into quadrants. In hurricanes, it's common to split the storm into 4 equal sized quadrants.
The right front quadrant of a hurricane (i.e. north and east of the center of circulation) is generally the worst quadrant of a storm. This is where a lot of the intense precipitation associated with the storm is located and where stronger winds and conditions favorable for tornadic development is present. Also, more "important" in this case, is that due to the anti-cyclonic flow of a low pressure system (counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere), the storm surge experienced by those in the right front quadrant generally tends to the be worse than in another quadrants.
This is why it will be very bad for Long Island for this storm to track west of Long Island, but East of NYC. Even if this becomes somewhat of an inland runner, the low pressure of the system, the associated onshore winds of the system and the fact that this could hit during a full moon at high tide could be devastating for coastal sections on Long Island.
The only way this storms becomes a lower threat is if it starts tracking very far inland, somehow takes a sharp turn out to sea or completely falls apart due to strong upper level shearing - scenarios that appear very unlikely.
The new NHC product shows the storm even more west now. Also the wind probability has been upgraded.
This is absolutely correct, but for others that are learning, "right-front" is only Northeast in this case because the storm is moving north. When hurricanes are moving west, for example, the "right front" is the northwest corner.Quote:
Originally Posted by USAF Pilot 07
This is going to be really bad. Everyone please be safe.
With the new 8PM models just out, it looks like the storm moved further west again and it looks like it will brush land from NC all the way up. For our forum weather experts - Does it look like it can lose a lot of strength in the amount of time between hitting NC and hitting NY?
I'm by no means a weather expert, but with the storm only skirting the coastline with the center of the storm staying over land it won't lose a lot of its potency. The part of the storm that draws all the moisture in off the ocean to fuel it will still be mostly over water unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting_falcon_51
The land temps have been cool, which hopefully will slow it down (hurricanes thrive on warm temps). It's somewhat early, but I'm seeing forecasts that have the eye passing through the shore of New Jersey at 3pm on Sunday with 86mph winds and 103mph gusts.
Again, it's early. I think whatever we here Saturday will of course let us know if we need to start changing our underwear. Regardless, I plan on stocking up on supplies TOMORROW. Get it done EARLY. Be safe now instead of sorry later.
It looks like we will get hit when it is in between a CAT 1 and CAT 2. Also it looks like we will see it early Sunday until late Sunday night.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_h..._2_640x480.gif
Ha, you think that map is scary? This one shows Irene cleared to the ILS RWY 4L approach...
http://www.nycaviation.com/hosting/AXvhiQXCMAEQIvT.jpg
I don't know if I should laugh or be really concerned at that one.:confused: