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I don't want to go off-topic, but if I see enough weather conversation and regular, daily discussion here to warrant it, I would have no problem adding it. I want it myself, as I love it. I just need to wait for the activity to kick in on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Derf
There is now a Tropical Storm Warning for Northeast and Southwest Suffolk.
Hurricane Earl Winds 145MPH moving NNW at 21MPH. Not good. Not good at all. Models are showing it to get closer to the tip of LI now. It is now also forcasted to be a stronger hurricane when it reaches us...
the latest tracks from Stormpulse show it going more East, and getting here earlier in the day/evening then predicted before.
It has already begun weakening, down to 125mph. Most likely will be a low Cat 2 or high Cat 1 when it reaches LI, probably 100 miles east of Montauk. Nantucket and the Cape will see the worst of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by NLovis
Honestly, with each post that you say it is getting more scary, the more the storm seems to calm and be easier to deal with. Please post a link or cite a source for future posts if you intend on scaring people by saying it's going to get stronger as it nears LI....as everyone I know has heard the opposite.Quote:
Originally Posted by NLovis
Latest NOAA track shows the Tropical Storm warning for LI and surrounding areas. According to this, winds will be between 74 and 110mph when it's around that area - a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm. Seems funny for us here in Florida to look up the coast and yell....DUCK!!!!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...12W5_NL_sm.gif
You know I was thinking the same thing. Sounds like "Chicken Little" :smile::smile:Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
Break down of Storm for LI:
Source: News 12 Long IslandQuote:
The current track point the storm about 125 miles of Southeast of Montauk Friday 6pm.
The westside of a hurricane is the weaker side. As of now the biggest impact will be coastal flooding and beach erosion. Power Outages possible so be prepared.
Storm Break Down on Current Track-
Friday morning dangerous seas and rip currents with beach erosion and coastal flooding during high tides. Winds 15 to 25 mph some gust near 30 by noon. From noon to 9pm Friday, Periods of rain gusty winds. Winds 20 to 40mph in Nassau County and Western Suffolk County. Eastern Suffolk County Winds gusting to 30 to 50 mph, some gusts to 60 possible. Robert Moses Field 5 east through Davis park could see some major beach erosion with the ocean waves hitting the dunes. Dune road during high tide could be flooded along with beach erosion from Hampton bays to Montauk. Friday night into Saturday morning winds will taper to 20 to 30 mph. Any rain will taper to showers and end early saturday. 1 to 2 inches total rainfall with 2 to 4 inches possible in heavy bands over the east end.
Track is still very important any shift east or west will change the forecast..
Weather Forecast……
Temperatures this morning are in the 70s. Sun and Clouds and Hot for today. A bit humid. Highs 82 to 92. For tonight, Increasing clouds and muggy. Lows 68 to 75.
Watching Earl For Friday. Beach Erosion and Coastal Flooding. Cloudy skies with periods of rain, windy. Wind gusts to 50mph possible 60 mph. Highs 75 to 80. Friday night Showers taper west to east. Windy. Lows in the 60s. Saturday a mix of sun and clouds, Windy. Some wind gusts to 35 mph. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Mostly Sunny for Sunday with highs 75 to 80. Monday (Labor Day) Mostly Sunny with highs near 80.
Rich Hoffman
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM Seal #190)
Also here are the updated maps for the storm it looks like it shifted away from the East end a little. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...track#contents
Source: NHC
All of Suffolk County has a Tropical Storm Warning while the other coastal areas of NY has a Tropical Storm watch.
Source: NHC
In my opinion it will be a bearable storm. I think it will be like the March nor' easter the worst.
Totally agree on this one especially for Nassau and the City. We've had worse Nor'easters recently and there was a Thunderstorm about a month ago that came through that scared the crap out of me with its wind and rain. But that said dont mess with Mother Nature though after this goes up and out weather looks pretty good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting_falcon_51
METAR from Billy Mitchell Airport on Cape Hatteras (HSE), currently the closest airport to Earl:
Quote:
SPECI KHSE 030202Z AUTO 06023G43KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR SCT009 SCT020 OVC031 22/22 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 07043/0201 P0017 TSNO
And don't forget the Hurricane hunters...................This one visited Republic last year, on a rainy day
http://fredkopf.smugmug.com/photos/5..._kv2SN-M-2.jpg
This is going to be a total no event for Nassau County. I'm hoping for some good surf still though. My guess, scattered showers with an occasional thunderstorm and winds no stronger than 35 to 45 the the western most part of Nassau County. Just me making bets but this thing looks like it's just going to die from this point in.
Dont blame when I actually check its stronger then before. And if you look I have posted a few images the last few days showing the 11PM update. Thats where I get my info from. and some good news with this 11PM update. Cat 2 hurricane with 105MPH winds moving NNE at 18MPH. Weakening system which is good. We will prob get some nice winds and some needed rain but it wont be like what NC is getting. (I prefer it that way) Though it will make my work day tomorrow crazy. Hopefully things die down some by 8PM so my flight can get out on time:smile: The models are also showing it further away from us now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/1948/earl1k.jpg
http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/3149/earl2.jpg
See there's your problem, your quoting The Weather Channel. All hype, all the time. :cool:
BTW, out here on eastern LI, at 0915am, winds right now are dead calm. Sky is overcast, no rain yet. Here is the ISP TAF for today:
KISP 031304Z 0313/0412 05004KT P6SM SCT035 OVC150
TEMPO 0313/0316 06010G20KT 3SM SHRA BR BKN025 BKN060
FM031600 06017G26KT 5SM SHRA BR OVC025
FM031900 06027G37KT 4SM SHRA BR OVC020
FM032200 03035G43KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC015
FM040200 35030G40KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC020
FM040500 30015G25KT P6SM SCT020 BKN150
FM040800 30008KT 5SM BR SCT150
Looks like the worst of it is between 6pm and 10pm tonight, but nothing I would evacuate for....actually nothing I would go run out to the store for, either.
Stormpulse says Earl is down to a Cat 1 @ 85 MPH. This is only (well not ONLY, but you know what I mean) a mid level cat 1. The track looks to be the same, but the tropical storm winds seem to be widened slightly. Again not that bad .. hopefully it weakens much more before it makes landfall up north
Here is some cockpit video from a NOAA WP-3 as they penetrated the eye wall yesterday morning. From the remarks on the page, it is not the same WP-3 that visited us last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IcPYtynJy4
In Western Suffolk its raining pretty heavy on and off.
In Syosset, it's been overcast, but no rain to speak of. This morning, I did take a ride down to the south shore. At 9am, Jones Beach was still charging a parking fee, so I headed east, stopping at Cedar Beach and Robert Moses.
http://www.moose135photography.com/L...98_rdcjn-L.jpg
Looking for treasure at Cedar Beach.
http://www.moose135photography.com/L...26_XYrWt-L.jpg
Ready for anything...
http://www.moose135photography.com/L...73_cUDnt-L.jpg
This guy did go into the water with his board, but by the time he did, he was a couple hundred yards up the beach from me, and the rain had picked up, so I didn't get any shots of that.
http://www.moose135photography.com/L...51_4CzoJ-L.jpg
Despite a break in the clouds, the impending arrival of Hurricane Earl kept swimmers out of the water.
http://www.moose135photography.com/L...25_mUPy2-L.jpg
Cedar Beach, with Earl some 250 miles to the south.
http://www.moose135photography.com/L...81_cK6ft-L.jpg
It was mostly overcast, with on-and-off light showers. Every now and then, we got a heavier shower, but most passed quickly. After a couple of hours of roaming the south shore, I headed for higher ground...:smile:
Source: Suffolk County Emergency Management/TWCQuote:
Emergency Management Bulletin for Suffolk County, NY
Issued by The Weather Channel
3:29 pm EDT, Fri., Sep. 3, 2010
From Suffolk County Emergency Management, East Hampton Town has opened a shelter at the Montauk Playhouse in the event that any residents feel the need to evacuate. The address is 12 Flamingo Avenue, Montauk, NY 11954. The telephone number is (631) 668-1612.
I guess this storm was really hyped but didn't do much damage as far as I know. Great shots though moose!
We had sun in Manhattan most of the morning then just cloudy. Not a drop of rain. No winds. Just got home (eastern Nassau) and still no rain, breezy, humid as hell.
Very strange...from what I've heard out east and in CT, even the heavier-looking squalls on radar are not dropping much rain.
A little breezy here in Manhattan, but just some random spritzes falling out of the sky...literally just a few drops at at time.
It was a total wash. Not a drop of percip fell in Long Beach and peak winds were about 15 Kts. The only real indication of anything different from normal was the amazing surf which nearly swallowed most lifeguard towers. Waves were running average 10 feet most of the day and growing to 15 and change during high tide. It was not that choppy confused crap March's Nore'Easter brough either. These were beautiful rolling sets. I got my stick out and took a few rides as high tide approached but it was a touch above my comfort level when they started peaking out. I did take about an hour and a half worth of amazing pics of the surf and others dropping into the slot though. Debating posting them later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zee71
Great page. I just "liked" it on FB.
Dud of a storm. No rain in Nassau or JFK. Thought it would be much worse.
I work in Westerly RI so I headed out to Watch Hill around 3:30 in the afternoon to shoot some pics of the surf. Here is my favorite pic from the afternoon. I headed back to my truck just in time as the sky opened up the rain came down.
http://i53.tinypic.com/xmpl41.jpg
Lucky you to live in such a beautiful state ;-) Great shot! love the Seagull lol as if nothing is going on!
LOL nothing like looking at Hurricane pictures as I prepare to dig out from a Nor'easters 12 inches of snow!!! :biggrin:Quote:
Originally Posted by gonzalu
At least you only got 12". We've got that on the ground already here and its still coming down pretty heavily. Prediction as of this morning is 12-24" before storm is done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerard
Yeah all done here but looks like its moving fast to the NE. Good luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by steve1840