Official admits hurricane forecasts "more art than science"

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Hurricane Scientists Flubbed Forecasts for Two Years

By Kelly Riddell and Elizabeth Lopatto

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane researchers, who forecast seven more storms this season, have flubbed the past two annual estimates because of unusual El Nino and La Nina weather phenomena in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

The predictions reflect variables that make this kind of weather forecasting "more art than science,'' said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Two of the nine Atlantic hurricanes predicted already have occurred for the season that ends Nov 30. Last year, five storms emerged after nine were anticipated.

Insurers and energy companies, the industries with the most at stake from damaging storms, say the forecasts don't affect their business plans. Until a tropical storm takes shape in the mid-Atlantic, there is no way to determine a hurricane's potential intensity or predict whether it may target populated areas and threaten to cause millions of dollars in losses, analysts say.

"The number of hurricanes are forecast for the entire Atlantic Basin,'' said Roger Read, an energy analyst at the investment firm of Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in Houston. "Even if you're accurate about predicting the numbers, saying specifically whether one will hit Texas or Florida has too many variables in the weather systems.'' More...