France: North Korea nuclear test was a failure
France: North Korea nuclear test was a failure
Pyongyang claims success; Japan imposes sanctions; U.S. readies resolution
The Associated Press
Updated: 2:55 p.m. PT Oct 11, 2006
PARIS - France said outright for the first time Wednesday that North Korea’s proclaimed nuclear test produced such a small blast that it must have failed, and analysts warned such challenging talk could lead Pyongyang to try again.
North Korea threatened more nuclear tests and said it would consider additional sanctions an act of war, stoking tensions in an already jittery Asia.
U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the United States will formally introduce a new draft U.N. Security Council resolution on North Korea on Thursday, with the hope that it would be adopted 24 hours later,
The measure comes as the United States and Japan have said they want the council to pass a resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea over its claimed nuclear test by the end of the week. Both countries have sought to overcome China's reluctance to punish its impoverished ally too severely.
World powers stepped up a hunt for clues about the insular communist regime’s test, with Britain sending refueling jets to join Japanese aircraft trawling the skies for any traces of radiation.
The blast from North Korea’s first nuclear weapons test was believed to have been the equivalent of hundreds or even thousands of tons of TNT, and was strong enough to send seismic waves as far as Japan’s main island.
But verifying exactly what happened — or even determining conclusively whether it was a nuclear device — could take several more days, if not weeks, officials said Wednesday.
If some Western powers are to be believed, the alleged test announced Monday by Pyongyang had a force of one kiloton or less — equivalent to the explosive force of 1,000 tons of TNT but far less than the 15 kiloton force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
France’s Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said French, American and other scientists had detected a blast of “relatively limited size.”
“In any case, if this was a nuclear explosion, it would be a case of a failed explosion,” she said on Europe-1 radio.
Speculation could be provocative
Such speculation about a dud test could be read as a challenge by Kim Jong Il, the North’s reclusive leader, to consider carrying out a second test to prove naysayers wrong, analysts said.
“The reaction could be exactly to carry out another explosion, to make sure it succeeds,” said Georges Le Guelte, a nuclear expert at France’s Institute for International and Strategic Research.
“The question still to answer is: What happened exactly?” he added. “We are facing total fog.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov held to his country’s estimate of five to 15 tons of TNT in the blast. Norway’s seismic array group, Norsar, estimated Monday a force of 1 to 10 kilotons.
Xavier Clement of France’s Atomic Energy Commission said he could not explain how the Russians came up with their figure, saying “it’s a hypothesis, not shared by us and other countries.”
“(The information) we are giving right now is credible,” he said. France has estimated a blast of 500 tons to a kiloton.
Western leaders played down media reports in Japan of tremors detected in that country overnight suggesting the North had carried out a second test.
Though it would seem easy to confirm a nuclear explosion, the technical challenges can be daunting. Western powers kept relatively quiet about their efforts.
French atomic experts were going over records from seismographs, which pick up shock waves, trying to find out if the blast was nuclear or involved traditional explosives.
U.S. reconnaisance to Okinawa
U.S. military officials have deployed WC-135 reconnaissance planes on the southern Japan island of Okinawa, but have said only that they are monitoring the situation.
Japan has dispatched six T-4 subsonic trainer aircraft to the waters between it and the Korean peninsula and other ranges within Japanese airspace to collect dust samples.
Britain sent a Royal Air Force VC-10 refueling plane to Japan to help the verification effort under the auspices of the United Nations — though British officials gave no details.
Radiation level confirmation can take up to three days for a relatively small blast like one that occurred Monday. More detailed analysis of the actual power of the device, or whether test was a success or a failure, can take much longer.
Some experts say it’s possible that the world never may never fully determine whether North Korea succeeded in conducting the test.
“It is possible with a relatively small underground blast that there would be no significant release of radiation,” said Hideshi Takesada, of the National Institute for Defense Studies, a branch of Japan’s Defense Agency.
He said that when India and Pakistan conducted their first nuclear tests, they broadcast footage as proof to the world that they had entered the nuclear club.
“With North Korea, there is nothing like that, no video at all,” he said. “This has made things more complicated.”
Re: France: North Korea nuclear test was a failure
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Mike
France: North Korea nuclear test was a failure
Well it's official then, because if anyone knows about military failures, it's the French. :lol:
Short term gain for N Korea
If the sanctions have the desired effect, the North Korean people will begin to blame the bouffant nut job for their suffering in about 3 months, and most observers say that he could be removed from power.
It's a gamble he may well lose.
In either case he's got to go.
Re: Short term gain for N Korea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art at ISP
<<If the sanctions have the desired effect, the North Korean people will begin to blame the bouffant nut job for their suffering in about 3 months, and most observers say that he could be removed from power.>>
It's a gamble he may well lose.
<<In either case he's got to go.>>
That would be nice.. I agree.. however, how is he going to be removed? By force? Might be the prudent thing to do, however the South will suffer what? a hundred thousand dead in about a week?
And, China become overrun with refugees?
Sanctions did nothing to topple Saddam.... and the US has been waiting for how many decades for Castro to kick the bucket?
Big problem was Clinton giving Kim nuclear reactors, and billions of dollars in aid, and promise of no nuke inspectors for 5 years....and now look what we have.
Tom
Re: Short term gain for N Korea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Turner
Big problem was Clinton giving Kim nuclear reactors
That's a cheap shot the Conservatives take - don't you mean Donald Rumsfeld's company sold Kim nuclear reactors?
Actually the truth is just a little different. The light-water reactors sold to NK at the time are not able to produce the materials needed for a nuclear weapon.
From Globalsecurity.org:
Quote:
Iran also may have helped North Korea get nuclear weapons technology from Pakistan. The man who lead Pakistan's nuclear weapons program has admitted illegally transferring some nuclear technology to Pyongyang.
And from The Guardian
Quote:
[shortly after taking office] President George Bush ended the policy of engagement and negotiation pursued by Mr Clinton, saying he did not trust North Korea, and pulled the plug on diplomacy. Pyongyang warned that it would respond by building nuclear missiles. A review of American policy was announced and the bilateral confidence building steps, key to Mr Clinton's policy of detente, halted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiss_srq
This was touched on in the O'Reilly Factor last night.
Yeah, Bill O'Reilly, the bastion of fair and balanced reporting :shock:
Re: Short term gain for N Korea
Quote:
Originally Posted by moose135
That's a cheap shot the Conservatives take - don't you mean Donald Rumsfeld's company sold Kim nuclear reactors?
It was the Democrats that went on a blame Bush tirade first.
Donal Rumsfield was a Private Citizen, so, what would the sale have to do with anything.
As for the Nuclear Reactor, nobody has any idea as to what North Korea could have learned from the Nuclear Reactors, there are no inspections, North Korea shut off the cameras & has not allowed any Inpsections.
The United States has been wise to not negotiate directly with North Korea, we have no leverage over the country, but, the other countries that are involved in the complex talks do.
South Korea provides aid to North Korea, Japan provides aid & has limited trade with North Korea, also, illegal North Koreans living in Japan send money back to North Korea.
China provides cheap fuel to North Korea & provides aid....
Re: Short term gain for N Korea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by moose135
That's a cheap shot the Conservatives take - don't you mean Donald Rumsfeld's company sold Kim nuclear reactors?
It was the Democrats that went on a blame Bush tirade first.
Donal Rumsfield was a Private Citizen, so, what would the sale have to do with anything.
As for the Nuclear Reactor, nobody has any idea as to what North Korea could have learned from the Nuclear Reactors, there are no inspections, North Korea shut off the cameras & has not allowed any Inpsections.
The United States has been wise to not negotiate directly with North Korea, we have no leverage over the country, but, the other countries that are involved in the complex talks do.
South Korea provides aid to North Korea, Japan provides aid & has limited trade with North Korea, also, illegal North Koreans living in Japan send money back to North Korea.
China provides cheap fuel to North Korea & provides aid....
Mike I'm not sure we have taken the right course not talking to N Korea or even Iran for that matter. Remember it was Nixon who went to China... The circumstances aren’t all that much different then what we face today.
Re: Short term gain for N Korea
Quote:
Originally Posted by T-Bird76
Mike I'm not sure we have taken the right course not talking to N Korea or even Iran for that matter. Remember it was Nixon who went to China... The circumstances aren’t all that much different then what we face today.
The United States already attempted one on one talks with North Korea, and they violated the agreement, how can we expect this country to do it again? What assurances do we have that it would work this time. The only way to hold North Korea accountable is to get other countries involved.
Iran, once again, we are getting other countries involved that actually have relationships with Iran and as a group, we were able to bring the case to the attention of the United Nations.
What I find surprising is that the Democrats have said that President Bush does not get other Countries involved, he is with both North Korea & Iran.
Something else, why does the United States have to do this, this should be the job of the United Nations....
:roll:
Re: Short term gain for N Korea
[quote=Midnight Mike]
Quote:
Originally Posted by "T-Bird76":0fbc2
Mike I'm not sure we have taken the right course not talking to N Korea or even Iran for that matter. Remember it was Nixon who went to China... The circumstances aren’t all that much different then what we face today.
The United States already attempted one on one talks with North Korea, and they violated the agreement, how can we expect this country to do it again? What assurances do we have that it would work this time. The only way to hold North Korea accountable is to get other countries involved.
Iran, once again, we are getting other countries involved that actually have relationships with Iran and as a group, we were able to bring the case to the attention of the United Nations.
What I find surprising is that the Democrats have said that President Bush does not get other Countries involved, he is with both North Korea & Iran.
Something else, why does the United States have to do this, this should be the job of the United Nations....
:roll:[/quote:0fbc2]
The United Nations?? The UN is nothing more then a resort for leaders of the world to come and spend sometime in NYC. Unless the U.N is given real power to govern its totally useless. There's no reason we can't hold one on one talks with both these countries, at-least then we can send a strong message to them face to face.
